The Resistance Reports
March 7, 2017
At Trump’s Congressional speech, Trump talked down the American economy. But by all accounts, the American economy is doing great, with strong job growth. Even job hopping, for better salary, is back in fashion with American workers.
For example, a poll found nearly 3,300 jobholders across the country, found that 21 percent of respondents are looking to find a different place of employment in the new year. That’s a 5 percentage point increase from a similar survey conducted at the end of 2014. Also a new survey released Monday by employment site CareerBuilder estimates that more than one in five employees are determined to leave their current place of employment at some point during 2016.
So with economy going strong and workers back to job hopping, why is Trump continue to “Talk Down American Economy?” Again, the economy is so strong already; to point that Trump stimulus & tax cuts is raising fear of inflation.
There is an equation, not often talk about in American politics, as while overall, the American economy is strong, a large segment of population is not benefitting much from the America’s economic growth, namely, with the un-skilled workers, who are often white male.
This is Trump’s core support group that helps Trump keep his goals as “Legitimate.” So what are Trump’s goals?
They are a massive stimulation, i.e. in infrastructure, Mexican Wall and military spending, coupled with a massive tax cut for corporations, where both would hurt the balance, and thus with that, helps legitimize GOP, an important base for Trump, cut in social safety nets.
Then there is the trade picture, where Trump is heading-off globalization, ditching multilateralism, for bilateralism. The problem with bilateralism, is that it offers less growth potential.
That would result in massive social un-rest over time, a certain, counter growth pressure.
US News & World Report, reports (source)
Employers shouldn’t get too attached to their workers over the course of the next year
The report, which and could spell trouble for management teams that want to retain talent, considering about 30 percent of young workers between 18 and 34 years old plan on having a new job by the end of 2016.
“Just because a person is satisfied with their job doesn’t necessarily mean they aren’t looking for new work,” Rosemary Haefner, chief human resources officer at CareerBuilder, said in a statement accompanying the report.
Indeed, about 34 percent of respondents said they are “regularly searching for job opportunities, even though they’re currently employed,” according to the statement. But that finding sits at the low end of the spectrum. A separate report published earlier this year by employment and research site Indeed estimated about 58 percent of U.S. adults look around at least monthly for alternative employment opportunities. And another study issued last month by Gallup polling group found that about 51 percent of current employees are looking for a new job in some capacity.
The following from Bloomberg (source)
Offer an overview of the American economy
The U.S. economy is poised to deliver on the Federal Reserve’s economic forecast for this year. That means a baseline outlook for three interest-rate increases remains in play — though not the way market may be anticipating. Think of it as two rate hikes, one each in June and December, with an option for a third in September.
The data continue to be generally supportive of the economic forecasts outlined in the Fed’s December Summary of Economic Projections. The first employment report of the year set the stage with a solid jobs gain but an uptick in unemployment. The latter indicates that there remains slack in the labor market, and Fed Chair Janet Yellen would like to let the economy run strong enough to squeeze it out.
Surveys of manufacturing and nonmanufacturing activity also point toward firming activity. In addition, housing starts and permits remained strong in January as December numbers were revised higher. Starts are 10.5 percent above year-ago levels. Housing appears likely to remain resilient given the uptick in mortgage rates experienced late last year as steady jobs growth and rising wages provide underlying support.
Inflation numbers firmed in January, with the core consumer price index gaining 0.3 percent for the month and 2.3 percent from a year earlier. This bodes well for the Fed’s inflation forecast for the year. Moreover, the recent decline in the value of the dollar should help support a move higher in the Fed’s preferred inflation measure toward the 2 percent target.
Altogether, the economy seems to be tracking at a fairly brisk pace. The Atlanta Fed is looking at 2.4 percent annualized growth for the first quarter of 2017, and the New York Fed is at 3.1 percent. Both exceed the Fed’s estimates of potential growth and should push unemployment a bit below the natural rate and inflation up to target per the central bank’s forecast.
So, that begs the question: Is the Fed falling behind the curve on inflation? Not yet. The upward pressure in headline inflation is likely coming to a close. Oil prices reached a low in January 2016, so the base effects are now waning and will continue to do so as long as oil is generally tracking sideways. Similarly, the dollar is now about flat from year-ago levels. Absent further declines it will cease to place upward pressure on inflation and, in the future, favorable year-over-year comparisons suggests some modest downward pressure: