Global Growth: Stock, Commodity & Money Markets: Positives & Negatives (Up-Date 10)

I am a Progressive, meaning Socialist Democrat, so fundamentally, I am Anti-Capitalist & a strong critic of Capitalism. However, the reality and fact of the matter is, Capitalism is here globally in a big way, and is a major factor, in driving, both global growth & global regression, and so what can a Socialist, like me do, except watch Capitalism, and make comments. Also, apart from being a Socialist, I am a strong proponent of innovation and creativity, and again, Capitalism plays a key role in driving them.

The following is from Innovation Files: We live in a global economy and society built on our investments in computer and network technology. Our connectedness—our ability to work and communicate easily with those outside of our borders–is the foundation of our digital economy. Policymakers are increasingly recognizing that the free flow of information online is important both for promoting democratic values (see Secretary Clinton’s remarks last year on Internet Freedom) and for promoting commerce (see the Department of Commerce’s Internet Policy Task Force examination of this issue). Yet barriers, both new and old, impair our connectivity and limit the potential of free trade. Especially from the commercial perspective, restrictions on the flow of information impact innovation, collaboration, trade, investment and economic activity.

Examples of barriers to the free flow of information include local data storage requirements for cloud computing, outdated regulations for voice-over-IP (VoIP) services, inadequate protect of digital copyrights, overlapping and conflicting data privacy regulations, restrictions on content and speech and liability for intermediaries, such as user-generated content sites. While these barriers and their origins have been explored in other contexts, I would like to address some of the potential solutions available to improve the free flow of information by looking at three specific issues: cloud computing, online copyrights, and electronic identities (See more at:

(Up-Date) IMF been making lots of comments, on global economic growth and development, saying, i.e. emerging markets will be hit from a US interest rate hike, liquidity draining from global emerging markets, commodity rout hitting many, and in sum, have said, IMF will likely lower global growth.

(Up-Date) For Capitalism to function well, lots have been said about freedom of all sorts, such as entering & exiting markets, information flow freedom, and so fourth, and on this, China, a tyranical country, that have adopted Capitalism in a big way, is having a hard time, with freedom of all sorts, and the latest, Futures Magazine, said China’s economic data, will become even more non-transparent.

(Up-Date) Many countries and region depends on commodity for growth and development, putting aside concerns such as environmental problems from fossil based energy, horrific mining practices that hurts workers rights, to destruction of forest and jungle, currently, some concern about Russia & Iran adventures in the Middle East, but with ample fossil, fossil ready to start up and renewable energy coming on strong, couple with the extreme high price humanity has to pay, for addiction, to fossil, including middle east and greater, perhaps it is best, that the planet does with less dependence on the region.

(Up-Date) There been lots of talk about over capacity (meaning with over capacity, demand from markets services, likely to be weak) all over the planet with all sorts of industry and services, and the latest is UK, central bank head, saying UK factory output is down, on slowing global manufacturing activity. Then an respected analysis, say Hong Kong housing price will tank substantially, in medium term, and also, China’s manufacturing profitability and out-put, has been falling, for a variety of factors. Also, most analysts, have long observed, a massive over capacity, all over China, on many industry and services.

(Up-Date) There was a growing trend, a few years back, of stock market and futures market, various type of mergers and acquisition, for increase global coverage, as market systems, compete for business. But lately, apart from a puch, in EU for, various types of common markets, nothing much has occurred.

(Up-Date) Currently, there is a great deal of concern with markets about growth, and a recent US job report, did not meet stock market analysts expectation, causing a very high volatility & an after-burner of some strength in gold as a safe heaven. The attention on the job reports report, relates to the some-what firm position of the US central bank, to raise interest rates later this year. US growth continues to be strong overall, and inflation, a threat to price stability, may face some risk of spiking up. However, while analysis are disappointed with the job report, the question is, what does the US central bank think of the latest job report.

(Up-Date) As expected, with Russia & Iran venturing into Middle East, in Syria, some firming up of oil, also as Putin leverage his militarism, into being open for talks with OPEC. And as expected, fossil leaders, are touting equations, of when does fossil start-up, will be viable. In the mean time, more financiers of fossil, such as Citi Group, is promising less money for fossil, i.e. coal & the Paris, climate meet, is getting close, with activist, gearing up, for a battle & fossil, asking for a place at the table. While this positive, in some aspect, a low energy price also benefit growth.

(Up-Date) Some solidifying of gold and stock markets, re-bounds, mostly, on bets, of more stimulus and interest easing, in developing world, and on some strength with commodity.

(Up-Date) Some reports say global manufacturing is weak, particularly emerging Asia, but stronger in the more developed economies, currently, more than in about a year. US trade deficit widened in recent months, probably because of stronger dollar and weak global demand.

(Uo-Dated) TPP negotiators reached a deal & apart from issues activist are concerned about, and potential weakening pressure on US based manufacturers to hire and increase wage, tariff comes tumbling down, & likely spur trade, offering comparative advantage.

(Up-Dated) World Bank and IMF, lowered global growth forecast.

(Up-Dated) Fed’s Fischer says U.S. economy may be strong enough to allow rate liftoff before year end, while other said no rate hike, but overall, the Fed has down-play the difference in Fed thinking.

(Up-Date) Oil price continues to be weak, hovering around US$40, currently, base on slow global growth and a glut in oil.

(Up-Date) Global stock market firmed up a bit, on some firming up of oil & more interest rate lowering & other stimulus by many countries, meaning a dovish out-look gives hope to more easing. Gold, as a place for safety, been going up a bit, on confusing, mostly, from US Fed policy. Money wise, US dollar continues to moderately hardening and Western Europe concern about currency being too hard. China said the last devaluation is the last, but then again, what China does and what China says, is often, relate together little.

(Up-Date) Another Euro zone bond rates went into negative, being Italy, meaning buyers of these bonds are paying to hold the bonds.

(Up-Date) Lots of concern from some market Gurus about risk of emerging market corporate debt.

(Up-Date) Many are starting to focus on global inflation, which show little sign of hardening & continue to move into negative, meaning deflationary direction, and in fact, pointing to macro level, global deflation which, apart from the economic & business consequences, in effect, what investors are looking at is the impact of this on US interest rates increase.

(Up-Date) There has been a, surprise, global awakening to innovation and related issues such as scientific research, start-up & entrepreneurship, as a growth driver, and the tech sector in the US stock market just hit 15 years high.

(Up-Date) China gave some key points to the country’s long-term plan, settling to say that it is targeting GDP growth of 6.5% a year, targeting to double the size of its economy in some medium-term involved, number of years. China, like other is also focusing in on innovation.

(Up-Date) Most analysis, that I saw, say India is in a best position of the now, much weakened BRICS grouping, with India, also jumping on the innovation driver of growth rationale. Brazil, China, Russia & South Africa are economically in a mess, that needs lots of reforms, resulting in slow growth, also for a variety, of non structural reasons, and their sttock market and currencies, now resemble, frontier. Of the BRICS, now much weakened, India stand-out, as more solid and stable, than other.

(Up-Date) Latin America as a whole, is heading towards a serious economic recession, and about the only thing that can pull the area back, is tourism, renewable energy, and some strength in commodities, & also a new mind-set with North America people, to focus on the region, instead of leaving the region on the back-burner, while other region like Asia, gets attention, and also.the region needs a reform mind-set The area’s stock markets and currencies, is mostly out of fashion, except for special situation, such as election results, bringing hope for quick improvements.

(Up-Date) ASEAN, is moving closer to form an more comprehensive economic integration, with a mile-stone coming up, in the near-term. But TPP has took away a great deal of shine for ASEAN, and the latest is that Indonesia will join TPP and Japan is helping Thailand join TPP as well. Overall, the ASEAN region, like most emerging markets, is also slowing, but ASEAN, as a whole, is highly exposed to the global economy. Thailand and Myanmar politics continues to a serous cause of risks, with some in Malaysia. ASEAN stock markets & currencies, so so nothing much going on, recently, mostly, side-way with lots of volatility.

(Up-Date) Germany’s industrial output, tanks moderately high & UK did not meet market expectation. Eurozone overall, looks to be continue to be soft & vulnerable, but at least there is stronger easing potential, with lots of space left, to create traction. Eurozone currency is also weakening, over much of the past, giving hope for better export performance. Stock market wise, perhaps, opportunity of a bit of a bull market, if listed firm performance hardens, indicating ability to adjusts, & some Eurozoone corporate performance, says this is occurring.

(Up-Date) Oil is hovering at about US$45 mcurrently, based on a mix of factors, mostly, short-term, but we will have to wait and see, when the short-term, un-wind, what the real picture looks like, and gold, which tanked for the past few months, has some-what stabilized a bit.

(Up-Date) China’s market is up by about 25% since tanking into the abyss, however, the market is being manipulated and subsidized by China’s government, by several measures, and when investors knows, down-side risk is little & support is there, there is little risk in investing in the Chinese stock market, help to build a fake bull market in the short-term & perhaps longer. But in the long -term, this is building a moral hazard & weak investment skill & culture, into the Chinese investing public.

(Up-Date) US continues its normal release of data, but with markets globally highly looking for some sign of certainty, for signal into the potential for near-term US Fed interest rates increase, these data release, are getting, heightened attention & focus. The latest UN employment numbers released is above market expectation. US stock market continues hardening, but very difficult to read, what is going on, as good news can become bad news and bad news can become good news, overnight.

(Up-Date) US stock market Tech Sector, hit a 15 years high, perhaps reflecting the global awakening to disruptive innovation, where US is a global leader in this area.

(Up-Date) Quantitative Easing Will Run Until Sustained Adjustment in Inflation Path, Says ECB’s Praet


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